Gabriele Marcotti, SI.comDon't look now, but AC Milan has won a paltry 11 of 25 games in the Italian and Champions leagues this season. That's less than the fewest number of victories among the 16 clubs who have advanced to the knockout phase of the Champions League, or an average of just over two wins per month since August.
Domestically, Milan sits just five points away from the relegation zone. And, even if you didn't count the eight-point penalty in Serie A, Milan would still be some 20 points behind Inter.
Hardly what you would expect from the Rossoneri, who remain No. 1 in UEFA's official seedings (which are based on the last five seasons) and who -- with Juventus banished from Serie B -- over the summer were still entertaining the possibility of challenging for the title, despite the penalty.
Over the past decade, Milan built a reputation as one of the best-run clubs in Europe (in stark contrast to its crosstown rival). And yet, thus far this year, everything that could go wrong has gone wrong. If this were any other club in a top league, manager Carlo Ancelotti's head would be snugly in the guillotine.
Because Milan's p.r. department is as good as they come, Ancelotti has not been made a scapegoat (and, to be fair, many of the problems are beyond his control). But the odds of him sticking around next year, even if he wins the Champions League, are slim to none and, in a perfect world, his would not be the only head to roll.
Here are five reasons why everything seems to be falling apart this season:
1) Injuries. Massimo Ambrosini, Dida, Cafú, Rino Gattuso, Kakha Kaladze, Paolo Maldini, Alessandro Nesta and Serginho have all suffered serious injuries at some point this season. Big clubs have big squads for precisely this reason, but it's a lot for anyone to absorb.
2) The World Cup hangover/Champions League preliminary-round effect. Eight Milan players advanced as far as the quarterfinals of the World Cup (and five were in the final on July 9). A month later, they were back on the pitch to face Crvena Zvedza in the third preliminary round.
Milan's role in the Italian influence-peddling scandal and the ensuing trial meant that it took forever to figure whether the club would even be in Europe and, if so, at what stage. This wreaked havoc with the club's preseason training camp and effectively forced fatigued and under-prepared players to drag themselves back on to the pitch with little or no break. It also severely hit the club's summer transfer spending, as it did not know whether it could count on Champions League funds.
3) This is an old, old team. Take away Kaká and Alberto Gilardino, and the entire starting XI is 27 or older. Cafú (36), Maldini (38), Nesta (30), Pippo Inzaghi (33) and Clarence Seedorf (30) still make up the core of the team and, since Milan does not operate a wholesale rotational policy, they end up playing way too many minutes.
4) Andriy Shevchenko has been replaced by Ricardo Oliveira. Granted, Sheva isn't exactly ripping it up at Chelsea, but Oliveira (who has scored one league goal all year) isn't even in the same hemisphere. What's more, because he hasn't been working out, Ancelotti has been forced to rely on the Gilardino-Inzaghi partnership. Whatever you may think of Inzaghi -- and he is definitely an acquired taste (one to which I have not been privy) -- the problem is that he does not complement Gilardino at all. Both can provide goals like Shevchenko, but neither has the Ukrainian's vision, passing, work rate and movement.
5. The squad hasn't been renewed -- it's the same faces as three years ago, only older. Stability is a great thing, but at some point you have to think of renewal. Take Gilardino out of the mix and there have been no significant arrivals since Kaká and Cafú joined in the summer of 2003. No top side in Europe has been treading water for so long.
Part of the problem is that the bulk of Milan's signings have been disappointing. Marek Jankulovski and Daniele Bonera were supposed to provide depth at the back, but both have been busts. Yoann Gourcuff looks promising, but he's just 19 and very much the exception. The Shevchenko money is still sitting there, waiting to be used, but given Milan's recent transfer judgment (chasing Ronaldo over the summer, for example), you've got to wonder if it will do any good.
